英国《金融时报》艾米 卡兹明(Amy Kazmin)曼谷报道
2008年6月3日 星期二
 
 
越南的外国商界人士警告称，通胀的迅速抬头、劳动力不稳定局面加剧和房地产泡沫，可能侵蚀这个共产党领导国家作为投资目的地的吸引力。
  Vietnam’s foreign business community is warning that rapid inflation, growing labour unrest and a real estate bubble could erode the Communist-ruled country’s appeal as an investment destination.
 
   
在6月2日召开的越南政府和外国商界年度会议上，越南美国商会(American Chamber of Commerce)主席迈克尔 皮斯(Michael Pease)呼吁越南政府迅速采取行动，恢复宏观经济稳定。
 At the annual meeting of the country’s authorities and members of the foreign business community on the 2 June, Michael Pease, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, will appeal to Hanoi to act quickly to restore macro-economic stability.
 
   
数日前有消息称，越南5月份通胀率激增至25.2%，为1992年以来的最高水平，原因是粮食、建设和住宅成本急剧上升。
 It comes just days after news that inflation surged to 25.2 per cent in May, its highest level since 1992, spurred on by steep rises in the cost of food, construction and housing.
 
   
“越南之所以能够成功吸引外国投资，很大程度上源自于经济及政治稳定的预期，”皮斯在发言中表示。皮斯福特越南公司(Ford Vietnam)董事长.
 “Vietnam’s success in attracting foreign investment has largely been built on the expectation of economic and political stability,” Mr Pease, who is general director of Ford Vietnam, will say in a speech.
 
   
越南政府目前需要采取“紧急而果断的行动”，以遏制投机性房地产泡沫，因为这“不仅会威胁金融部门，也会在越南面临周边国家吸引外资挑战的情况下削弱其长期竞争力”。
 Hanoi now needs to take “urgent and decisive action” to curb a speculative real estate bubble that “not only threatens the financial sector, but is also undermining Vietnam’s long-term competitiveness as it is challenged for foreign investment by neighbouring countries”.
 
   
译者/管婧

英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2008年5月30日 星期五
 
 
美国的房地产市场到底有多糟糕？广受关注的标准普尔/Case-Shiller房价指数看上去很恐怖。该指数最新数据显示，房价正在加速下滑，今年一季度同比下跌14%，较2006年的峰值下跌逾16%。相比之下，联邦住房企业监督办公室(Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight)的数据显示，房价在繁荣时期的涨幅没有那么高，在2007年到达峰值，此后已下跌约4%。全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据位于两者之间。
  Just how bad is the US housing market? The widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index looks horrible. Its latest figures show prices accelerating downwards. They fell over 14 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter and are down more than 16 per cent from their 2006 peak. Contrast that with data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that showed prices appreciating less rapidly during the boom and peaking in 2007 – since when they have fallen about 4 per cent. Figures from the National Association of Realtors are somewhere in between.
 
   
谁是正确的？简单的答案是，它们都对。它们测量的对象不同。Case-Shiller与住企监督办测量的都是一定时间段内同样的单户型住宅交易。Case-Shiller指数涵盖全美70%的地区，而住企监督办的范围更广。但Case-Shiller指数囊括了更多交易类型，包括牵涉巨额与次级抵押贷款的交易，而住企监督办只统计贷款符合联邦住宅抵押贷款 (Freddie Mac)和联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae)标准的房屋。房地产经纪人协会衡量的中间价格追踪的不是同处房产的销售，因而可能受到在售房屋组合的影响。
 Which is correct? The short answer is all of them. They measure different things. Both Case-Shiller and Ofheo measure transactions on the same single-family homes over time. Case-Shiller covers 70 per cent of the country, while Ofheo is broader. But Case-Shiller covers more types of purchase, including those with jumbo and subprime mortgages, while Ofheo only measures houses bought with loans conforming to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s criteria. The NAR takes median prices without tracking same house sales, so it can be affected by the mix of houses being sold.
 
   
可以理解，唱衰市场的人会高度关注暴跌的Case-Shiller指数。事实证明这个指数更不稳定，考虑到它包括了更大户型的房屋并根据所购房屋价值对指数加权，这也就不足为奇了。这可能会让巨额抵押贷款占据很大份额的加州等地区更有影响力。可以说，这也是衡量美国房地产业整体破坏程度的最佳方法。可是，住企监督办的数据可能可以让我们更好地了解普通美国人的状况。这方面的消息看起来没有那么吓人。
 Understandably, gloom-mongers focus on the plunging Case-Shiller index. It is not surprising that it has proved more volatile, given that it includes bigger houses and weights the index according to value of homes purchased. That is likely to make troubled areas such as California, with a big share of jumbo mortgages, more influential. Arguably, it is also the best measure for the overall destruction of US housing wealth. The Ofheo index, however, perhaps gives a better idea of what average Americans are experiencing. The news on that front looks less alarming.
 
   
两个指数体现出的价格跌幅可能并不一致。但有一点两者可以达成共识：痛苦正在向全美范围扩散，而且仍在加深。
 The two indices may tell different stories on the quantum of price falls. But one thing both can agree on is that the pain is spreading nationally and is still getting worse.
 
   
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。
 
   
译者/李碧波

英国《金融时报》戴维 皮林(David Pilling)、莱昂内尔 巴贝尔(Lionel Barber)东京报道
2008年5月29日 星期四
 
 
日本自民党(LDP)的一位著名政治人物对英国《金融时报》表示，由于担心大权不保，该执政党或许会尽可能推迟举行大选。如果大选失败，这将是日本自民党自二战以来第二次失去执政地位。
  Japan’s Liberal Democratic party is likely to delay an election as long as possible in fear of being thrown out of power for only the second time since the second world war, one of the ruling party’s most prominent politicians has told the Financial Times.
 
   
前日本防卫大臣小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)表示，如果近期举行大选，在野党日本民主党(Democratic Party of Japan)获胜的“可能性很大”。小池百合子本人被视为接替福田康夫(Yasuo Fukuda)首相职务的一个外围人选。
 Yuriko Koike, former defence minister, who is considered an outside candidate to succeed Yasuo Fukuda as prime minister, said the opposition Democratic Party of Japan had a “high chance” of winning power if a general election were called soon.
 
   
自1955年成立以来，自民党一直是日本执政党，其间，仅在上世纪90年代早期有9个月时间为反对党。
 The LDP has governed continuously since it was formed in 1955, save for nine months in opposition in the early 1990s.
 
   
译者/苏客

英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2008年5月28日 星期三
 
 
新兴市场的投资银行是否正在从小虾米变成大鲨鱼？
  Are investment banks in the emerging markets, once minnows, fast turning into sharks?
 
   
Dealogic的数据显示，2007年，全球投行业务总收入为840亿美元。其中大部分仍来自于美国市场。然而，新兴市场的重要性正日益增强。2007年的全球总收入中，三分之一来自欧洲、中东和非洲市场，其余15%来自亚洲国家。相应地，新兴市场投资银行也在不断成长。虽然它们在全球投行业务总收入中所占比例仍仅有2%，但从本世纪初至今已增长了7倍。从大宗商品热潮，到当地股市和债市的市场深化，很多因素促成了它们的成功。
 Global investment banking revenues – $84bn in 2007, according to Dealogic – are still predominantly generated in the US. But emerging markets are growing in importance. Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for a third of 2007 revenues and Asian countries generated the remaining 15 per cent. In response, emerging market investment banks are also growing. While their share of global investment banking revenues remains only 2 per cent, it has increased seven-fold since the beginning of the decade. There are several reasons for their success – from the commodities boom to the deepening of local stock and bond markets.
 
   
中国快速扩张的股市诠释了中国投资银行的成长，而这也是新兴市场银行在全球股权资本市场(ECM)收入中所占比例相对较高（6%）的原因。中国关照本土企业的规定帮助了国内银行——在2005年对更多外国投资实施禁令之前，只有高盛(Goldman Sachs)和瑞银(UBS)获准在中国内地组建合资企业，从事IPO承销或A股交易业务。但是，如果说中国实质上依然对外封闭的话，其它快速增长的市场却并非如此。Dealogic的数据显示，印度2007年的投行收入超过10亿美元，远远高于2003年的1.5亿美元。
 China’s fast-expanding equity markets explain the growth of the country’s investment banks – and the reason why emerging market banks took a relatively large 6 per cent share of global equity capital market (ECM) revenues. Chinese banks are helped by rules favouring domestic firms – only Goldman Sachs and UBS were allowed to invest in mainland joint ventures able to underwrite initial public offerings or trade A-shares before the ban on further foreign investment in 2005. But if China remains essentially closed to all but locals, other fast-growing markets are not. India generated investment banking revenues in 2007 of more than $1bn, according to Dealogic, compared with $150m in 2003.
 
   
哪些新兴市场银行将会利用这些趋势呢？普遍公认的是中国银行业巨头——中国银行(BoC)和中国工商银行(ICBC)。即使不包括股权资本市场，在收入最高的10大新兴市场投资银行中，中国也占有4席。不过，其它银行正在迎头赶上，例如印度的ICICI或俄罗斯的Renaissance Capital。问题是，本地专长和业务是否能够帮助最精明的银行跻身排行榜前列呢？
 Which emerging market banks will take advantage of these trends? China’s giants – Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – are well recognised. Even excluding ECM, China accounts for four of the top 10 emerging market investment banks by revenues. Others, though, such as India’s ICICI or Russia’s Renaissance Capital, are snapping at their heels. The question is whether local expertise and presence will help the savviest move up to the top table.
 
   
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。
 
   
译者/苏客